LibDem Boost in Polls

5.41.54pm GMT Sat 5th Feb 2005

Analysis of opinion polls from January 2005 shows the Liberal Democrats scoring more highly than in any January of an election year since political polling began. Looking at all published polls, the party's average poll rating (21.6%) in January 2005 was around eight points above the average LibDem rating in January 2001 (13.7%) and nine points above the party's average in January 1997 (12.4%).

By contrast Labour are down from an average of 50.6% in 1997 and 48.7% in 2001 to just 37.1% showing there is general disillusionment with Labour's record in government, and this was reflected in election results in 2004. The Tories score an average of just 32.1%, exactly the same as in January 2001 and just 0.4% up on their 31.7% average in January 1997.

Despite several changes of leader, the Conservatives are making no progress. The Press Association has already hinted that plans are afoot to ditch Michael Howard after the election, and it is admitted by party chiefs that they have no chance of forming the next government. Hence their increasingly strident attempts to raise issues that they think will be popular, but ill thought out.