Long-term Tory fears after poll thrashing

5.21.30pm BST (GMT +0100) Mon 30th Aug 2004

Not a recent headline, but one from the Daily Telegraph of 8 May 1993. In its election analysis of that year, Anthony King stated 'The Conservatives on Thursday (6 May) suffered their worst electoral thrashing since the fall of Mr Edward Heath's Government in the mid 1970s. The results confirm this week's Gallup findings indicating that Mr Major's Government is now the most unpopular since records began.

'The swing against the Conservatives in Newbury, 28.4 per cent, was their worst in a by-election for 20 years - worse than Ribble Valley, Eastbourne, Ryedale and even Crosby, where the SDP's Shirley Williams won a sensational by-election victory in 1981. Not since Clement Freud won the old Isle of Ely seat on a swing of 31.6 per cent in July 1973 have the Conservatives been so comprehensively trounced.'

In Newbury, the Tories had a majority of 12,357. Following the election, the Liberal Democrats candidate, David Rendel, had a majority of 22,055. The director of campaigns in Newbury at that time was Mr Chris Rennard, who is now responsible for the current campaign in Hartlepool, where barrister Jody Dunn is contesting the seat vacated by Peter Mandelson. As yet, the Tories have no candidate in Hartlepool!

Eleven years on, and three leaders later, it seems that history is repeating itself with Michael Howard, as he desperately tries to win favour with his bandwagon politics. Unfortunately for him, his efforts seem to backfire as he keeps changing course, and people are increasingly questioning the relevance of the Conservatives in 2004.